Thu, Jan 16, 2020·TD Garden, Boston
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 110 | 010 | 010 | 130 |
| BOS | 212 | 012 | 26 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:24PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Dominik Simon, Jack Johnson · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:03BOSSean KuralyAssists: Karson Kuhlman, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 12:16BOSPar LindholmGWGAssists: Karson Kuhlman · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 3:19BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 19:07BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:16PITZachary Aston-Reese: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:23PITJohn Marino: Boarding2 min
- P1 7:33PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:33BOSChris Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:19BOSPatrice Bergeron: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:39BOSChris Wagner: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:47BOSAnders Bjork: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:05PITPatric Hornqvist: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:05BOSTorey Krug: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:11PITPatric Hornqvist: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:11BOSTorey Krug: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:41PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min
- P3 11:42PITPatric Hornqvist: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – McCann – Simon10:47
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Malkin – Rust – Kahun6:51
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Agozzino – Galchenyuk3:14
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese7:37
xG 0.15–0.18 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino11:58
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- Ruhwedel – Riikola5:47
xG 0.17–0.10 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Letang – Riikola2:46
xG 0.01–0.05 (21%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak8:10
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Coyle – Bjork – DeBrusk8:02
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Heinen – Kuhlman – Lindholm4:33
xG 0.07–0.19 (27%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly8:28
xG 0.03–0.22 (13%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy9:30
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo3:16
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo9:16
xG 0.42–0.36 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).