Thu, Jan 16, 2020·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Los Angeles Kings 3, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 07 | 314 | 330 |
| FLA | 19 | 18 | 29 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:04FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 3:06FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Dominic Toninato, Mike Hoffman · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 4:55FLAMike MathesonAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 7:06FLABrian BoyleGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 11:42LAKAlex IafalloSHAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 15:08LAKJeff CarterSHAssists: Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 17:20LAKAnze KopitarSHAssists: Nikolai Prokhorkin, Dustin Brown · Slap, 0.43 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:23LAKAustin Wagner: Holding2 min
- P1 19:21FLADominic Toninato: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:52FLABrett Connolly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:31LAKBen Hutton: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:57LAKMatt Roy: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:10FLABrian Boyle: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:08FLAJoshua Brown: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Brown – Clifford11:12
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Lewis – Prokhorkin – Anderson-Dolan2:17
xG 0.05–0.08 (36%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Iafallo10:00
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Lewis – Wagner – Anderson-Dolan7:57
xG 0.20–0.54 (27%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Roy11:32
xG 0.43–0.14 (75%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Forbort – Walker11:13
xG 0.13–0.91 (13%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Martinez – Doughty19:20
xG 0.32–1.43 (18%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Toninato – Vatrano9:29
xG 1.02–0.36 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov11:32
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Acciari10:03
xG 0.19–0.41 (32%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Stillman11:23
xG 0.71–0.46 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ekblad12:37
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Yandle – Brown10:40
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 8–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).