Thu, Jan 16, 2020·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
New York Rangers 3, New York Islanders 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 06 | 112 | 210 | 328 |
| NYI | 122 | 05 | 113 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:09NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Ross Johnston, Tom Kuhnhackl · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 12:46NYRMika ZibanejadPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG1–1
- P3 4:16NYRTony DeAngeloUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 12:40NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Ryan Pulock, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–2
- P3 19:35NYRChris KreiderPPGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin · Backhand, 0.21 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:27NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:30NYRMarc Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:13NYIDevon Toews: Holding2 min
- P2 12:33NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:22NYRAdam Fox: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:29NYRRyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:07NYRTony DeAngelo: Interference2 min
- P3 5:24NYIRyan Pulock: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 12:29NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:29NYRArtemi Panarin: Embellishment2 min
- P3 13:51NYRChris Kreider: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:06NYIDerick Brassard: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich8:03
xG 0.52–0.40 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Howden – Chytil – Kakko7:00
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Panarin9:11
xG 0.18–0.57 (24%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – DeAngelo8:10
xG 0.55–0.22 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren8:30
xG 0.30–0.36 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Skjei – Trouba13:59
xG 0.54–1.02 (34%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Martin – Cizikas9:59
xG 0.92–0.45 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Brassard – Nelson – Beauvillier11:20
xG 0.78–0.34 (70%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal9:40
xG 0.76–0.53 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Bailey – Kuhnhackl – Johnston2:42
xG 0.15–0.13 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Pulock14:04
xG 1.62–0.54 (75%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Toews10:43
xG 0.50–0.30 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mayfield3:09
xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).