Thu, Jan 16, 2020·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 210 | 117 | 440 |
| PHI | 112 | 019 | 010 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:47PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Connor Bunnaman · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 19:05MTLTomas TatarAssists: Phillip Danault, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 2:08MTLIlya KovalchukPPGWGAssists: Nick Cousins, Shea Weber · Snap, 0.54 xG2–1
- P2 2:19MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Phillip Danault, Tomas Tatar · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 11:13MTLIlya KovalchukAssists: Phillip Danault, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:21PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:55PHIKevin Hayes: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:17MTLDale Weise: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:07PHIConnor Bunnaman: Holding2 min
- P2 16:45MTLMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:47PHIRobert Hagg: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:47MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Instigator2 min
- P3 1:47MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:47MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:03MTLPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Tatar – Danault12:06
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Thompson – Weise – Lehkonen2:07
xG 0.23–0.04 (84%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Armia – Domi – Suzuki11:21
xG 0.72–0.71 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Poehling – Kotkaniemi5:22
xG 0.17–0.35 (34%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot14:49
xG 1.31–0.82 (61%)attempts 22–13goals 1–1
- Kulak – Mete11:33
xG 0.30–0.43 (42%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Petry – Scandella15:14
xG 0.37–0.53 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Aube-Kubel9:44
xG 0.37–0.33 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Giroux – Hayes – Konecny10:54
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Bunnaman – Farabee5:12
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
- Voracek – Couturier – Raffl11:30
xG 0.66–0.84 (44%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers12:45
xG 0.88–0.34 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Niskanen – Provorov14:30
xG 0.76–0.78 (49%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Hagg – Friedman13:19
xG 0.45–0.49 (47%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).