Thu, Jan 16, 2020·Capital One Arena, Washington
New Jersey Devils 2, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 113 | 112 | 234 |
| WSH | 215 | 115 | 28 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:17WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 19:08WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 0:16WSHCarl HagelinGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 1:08NJDWayne SimmondsAssists: Nico Hischier, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 3:34NJDBlake ColemanSHAssists: Travis Zajac · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 6:42WSHJakub VranaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 15:42WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Tom Wilson, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:42WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P1 13:39NJDTravis Zajac: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:12NJDJohn Hayden: Holding2 min
- P2 3:16WSHRichard Panik: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:56WSHRichard Panik: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:36NJDSami Vatanen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 2:11NJDWill Butcher: Holding2 min
- P3 8:06WSHNicklas Backstrom: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestWood – Bratt – Hughes2:59
xG 0.16–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Wood – Bratt – Hischier4:38
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Zacha – Hischier4:58
xG 0.39–0.46 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 1–2
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev9:58
xG 0.28–0.44 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Greene – Subban10:08
xG 0.75–0.71 (51%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Severson – Butcher2:35
xG 0.13–0.11 (53%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Subban – Carrick2:22
xG 0.01–0.02 (42%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson9:27
xG 1.30–0.59 (69%)attempts 17–10goals 2–1
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway4:58
xG 0.29–0.04 (89%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik9:47
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana10:15
xG 0.35–0.56 (38%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny14:08
xG 1.25–0.71 (64%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Orlov – Gudas2:47
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Jensen – Siegenthaler4:23
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).