Thu, Jan 16, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 117 | 119 | 27 | 443 |
| OTT | 010 | 09 | 216 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34VGKPaul StastnyAssists: Mark Stone, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 18:55VGKMark StoneAssists: Max Pacioretty, Paul Stastny · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 5:50VGKChandler StephensonSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P3 6:50OTTVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Chris Tierney, Connor Brown · Slap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 9:23VGKRyan ReavesAssists: William Carrier · Snap, 0.21 xG4–1
- P3 12:30OTTConnor BrownPPAssists: Colin White, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.27 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:28OTTConnor Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:43VGKTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:25VGKReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:08VGKNate Schmidt: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:39VGKReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Stone11:45
xG 0.86–0.08 (91%)attempts 20–5goals 2–0
- Smith – Marchessault – Stephenson11:03
xG 0.73–0.60 (55%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Roy8:57
xG 0.65–0.60 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Eakin – Nosek – Tuch10:54
xG 0.30–0.58 (34%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Theodore19:51
xG 1.12–0.68 (62%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt15:05
xG 0.87–0.75 (54%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Engelland – Hague10:38
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Tierney – Brown2:50
xG 0.24–0.03 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Sabourin – Chlapik – Balcers4:32
xG 0.05–0.01 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Duclair – Tkachuk2:16
xG 0.06–0.11 (35%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Duclair3:03
xG 0.03–0.18 (13%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hainsey – Chabot16:29
xG 0.75–0.85 (47%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Reilly14:02
xG 0.74–0.99 (43%)attempts 15–21goals 0–2
- Borowiecki – Zaitsev13:46
xG 0.21–0.65 (25%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).