Thu, Jan 16, 2020·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Anaheim Ducks 4, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 214 | 19 | 14 | 427 |
| NSH | 114 | 014 | 17 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:01ANAJosh MansonAssists: Ondrej Kase, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 12:22ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–0
- P1 13:56NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Roman Josi, Rocco Grimaldi · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 9:52ANARickard RakellGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 8:03ANADerek GrantSHAssists: Carter Rowney, Josh Manson · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 15:22NSHMikael GranlundSHAssists: Jarred Tinordi · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 11:45NSHDante Fabbro: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:22ANANicolas Deslauriers: Holding2 min
- P3 14:36NSHRocco Grimaldi: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Rakell – Sprong12:01
xG 0.71–0.60 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney8:28
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kase – Steel – Jones13:38
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – De Leo12:56
xG 0.24–0.84 (22%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson17:52
xG 1.08–0.43 (72%)attempts 20–14goals 2–0
- Holzer – Larsson12:24
xG 0.10–0.36 (22%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Lindholm18:39
xG 0.32–1.18 (21%)attempts 12–21goals 0–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Grimaldi – Arvidsson12:41
xG 0.92–0.15 (86%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Johansen8:33
xG 0.68–0.31 (69%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Turris – Blackwell – Trenin7:34
xG 0.11–0.19 (38%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg13:49
xG 0.29–0.59 (33%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Ekholm18:04
xG 1.00–0.26 (79%)attempts 22–12goals 0–1
- Josi – Fabbro21:06
xG 0.82–0.79 (51%)attempts 23–16goals 1–1
- Weber – Tinordi11:39
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).