Fri, Jan 17, 2020·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Anaheim Ducks 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 112 | 013 | 011 | 11 | 237 |
| CAR | 115 | 06 | 04 | 01 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59CARSebastian AhoAssists: Joel Edmundson, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 18:18ANAErik GudbransonAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Korbinian Holzer · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- OT 1:36ANASam SteelGWGAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:51ANARickard Rakell: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:59CARJordan Staal: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:30ANARyan Getzlaf: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:45CARJoel Edmundson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Silfverberg – Shore12:07
xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 19–9goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Sprong10:56
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney6:33
xG 0.02–0.12 (16%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Kase – Steel – Jones11:07
xG 0.33–0.53 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Lindholm18:19
xG 1.47–0.58 (72%)attempts 29–10goals 1–1
- Fowler – Manson18:12
xG 0.95–0.97 (49%)attempts 21–21goals 0–0
- Holzer – Larsson10:01
xG 0.11–0.27 (28%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – McGinn – Svechnikov9:24
xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Staal – McGinn – Foegele3:57
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Foegele – Aho8:16
xG 0.50–0.57 (46%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov3:32
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Slavin – Pesce3:24
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Slavin15:11
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Pesce16:22
xG 0.52–0.89 (37%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).