Sat, Jan 18, 2020·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Washington Capitals 6, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 08 | 511 | 630 |
| NYI | 211 | 211 | 07 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:22WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–0
- P1 13:11NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 15:49NYICasey CizikasPPAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
- P2 9:31NYIJordan EberlePPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Devon Toews · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 17:25NYIDevon ToewsAssists: Leo Komarov, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 2:33WSHCarl HagelinPPAssists: Richard Panik, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–4
- P3 5:18WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 14:32WSHTom WilsonAssists: Dmitry Orlov, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 17:30WSHJakub VranaGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–4
- P3 19:04WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:05NYIJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:40WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:11WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 13:34WSHCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P2 4:49NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:49NYIMatt Martin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:49WSHRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:27WSHBrendan Leipsic: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:11NYILeo Komarov: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:37NYINick Leddy: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson9:19
xG 0.80–0.09 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana5:36
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Dowd – Hathaway3:18
xG 0.07–0.01 (84%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Hagelin – Panik – Kuznetsov3:17
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Kempny4:04
xG 0.64–0.32 (67%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Gudas – Kempny2:15
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Orlov4:01
xG 0.19–0.05 (81%)attempts 4–1goals 2–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal10:50
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Brassard – Kuhnhackl – Johnston4:15
xG 0.01–0.03 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier9:24
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
- Komarov – Martin – Cizikas10:03
xG 0.71–1.14 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews9:22
xG 0.89–0.06 (94%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Dobson5:53
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Pulock – Toews2:17
xG 0.18–0.16 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).