Sat, Jan 18, 2020·Pepsi Center, Denver
St. Louis Blues 3, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 15 | 111 | 18 | 324 |
| COL | 14 | 37 | 17 | 518 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Samuel Girard, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 18:04STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 1:06STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Zachary Sanford · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 7:48COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Tyson Jost, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 16:26COLCale MakarUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 16:48COLAndre BurakovskyGWGAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 7:23STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: David Perron, Zachary Sanford · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:58COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:54COLNazem Kadri: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:41COLCale Makar: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:50STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:13STLDavid Perron: Interference2 min
- P2 13:24COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:07STLJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:00STLIvan Barbashev: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:33COLNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Sanford11:15
xG 0.58–0.12 (83%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Steen – Bozak – Thomas5:55
xG 0.24–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- MacEachern – de la Rose – Barbashev2:27
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Sundqvist8:33
xG 0.12–0.38 (24%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Faulk12:35
xG 0.65–0.27 (71%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
- Pietrangelo – Dunn9:26
xG 0.35–0.12 (75%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Gunnarsson – Faulk3:53
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin11:07
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen9:11
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 2–2
- Nieto – Kamenev – Jost4:05
xG 0.03–0.22 (13%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Calvert – Compher – Bellemare8:27
xG 0.05–0.25 (16%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Zadorov11:16
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Graves – Zadorov2:45
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Makar2:18
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).