Sat, Jan 18, 2020·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Chicago Blackhawks 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 310 | 311 | 013 | 634 |
| TOR | 011 | 212 | 010 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21CHIDrake CaggiulaAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 5:32CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Alex Nylander · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 11:02CHIBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Ryan Carpenter · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 0:25TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 3:19CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Drake Caggiula, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
- P2 10:58CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Jonathan Toews, Slater Koekkoek · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–1
- P2 15:17TORAlexander KerfootAssists: Pierre Engvall, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–2
- P2 17:42CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:48CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:15CHIConnor Murphy: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:18TORKasperi Kapanen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Saad – Carpenter14:04
xG 0.84–0.17 (83%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Toews – Kubalik – Caggiula10:40
xG 0.49–0.56 (47%)attempts 13–10goals 3–1
- Smith – Highmore – Nylander10:56
xG 0.16–0.62 (20%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Kampf – Dach10:19
xG 0.26–1.21 (17%)attempts 6–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Koekkoek17:45
xG 0.95–0.78 (55%)attempts 20–16goals 2–0
- Murphy – Gustafsson18:39
xG 0.83–0.67 (55%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Keith – Boqvist16:19
xG 0.83–1.24 (40%)attempts 15–29goals 2–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews9:08
xG 0.84–0.52 (62%)attempts 18–11goals 0–3
- Tavares – Johnsson – Nylander8:03
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Spezza – Nylander – Brooks4:23
xG 0.26–0.05 (84%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Engvall – Brooks2:31
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Marincin5:47
xG 1.16–0.47 (71%)attempts 20–7goals 0–2
- Liljegren – Sandin7:53
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Ceci – Sandin5:13
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).