Sat, Jan 18, 2020·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 211 | 214 | 01 | 1 | 434 |
| MTL | 39 | 06 | 110 | 07 | 2 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:51MTLNick CousinsAssists: Dale Weise, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 12:33MTLIlya KovalchukAssists: Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–2
- P1 18:05MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Brett Kulak, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–3
- P2 9:08VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 14:47VGKPaul StastnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 9:40MTLNick CousinsAssists: Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–4
- P3 18:02VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:52VGKReilly SmithAssists: Paul Stastny, Shea Theodore · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. MTL Ilya Kovalchuk scored
- 2. VGK Jonathan Marchessault scored
- 3. MTL Nick Cousins stopped
- 4. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
- 5. MTL Joel Armia stopped
- 6. VGK Alex Tuch stopped
- 7. MTL Tomas Tatar scored
- 8. VGK Reilly Smith stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:23VGKWilliam Carrier: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:14MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Holding2 min
- P3 12:15MTLShea Weber: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Smith – Marchessault – Stephenson11:04
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Eakin – Nosek – Tuch4:44
xG 0.01–0.05 (20%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carrier – Tuch7:55
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Reaves – Nosek – Roy5:29
xG 0.07–0.36 (17%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Theodore2:24
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Engelland – Hague10:43
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 11–2goals 1–1
- Theodore – Hague3:52
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Tatar – Danault11:52
xG 1.13–0.41 (73%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Thompson – Weise – Cousins7:13
xG 0.62–0.15 (81%)attempts 4–4goals 2–0
- Lehkonen – Poehling – Kotkaniemi11:00
xG 0.41–0.14 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Armia – Domi – Suzuki13:03
xG 0.84–0.65 (56%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Mete14:15
xG 1.01–0.38 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Weber – Chiarot16:02
xG 0.96–0.60 (61%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
- Petry – Scandella16:12
xG 1.10–0.89 (55%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).