Sat, Jan 18, 2020·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Los Angeles Kings 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 011 | 115 | 135 |
| PHI | 19 | 213 | 14 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48PHITravis KonecnyAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 3:44PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 12:08PHIJoel FarabeePPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Travis Sanheim · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 5:06LAKDustin BrownUnassisted · Snap, 0.32 xG1–3
- P3 8:09PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Kevin Hayes · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 0:53PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 10:34LAKDrew Doughty: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:07PHIClaude Giroux: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 7:38LAKNikolai Prokhorkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo4:10
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Kempe3:25
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Prokhorkin – Kempe – Amadio5:11
xG 0.14–0.02 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Toffoli – Iafallo4:21
xG 0.12–0.02 (86%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort18:07
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Martinez – Roy15:55
xG 0.84–0.62 (57%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Pitlick – Bunnaman – Farabee6:51
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Farabee2:31
xG 0.03–0.14 (15%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny11:12
xG 0.50–0.69 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Raffl13:22
xG 0.36–0.72 (33%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers15:47
xG 0.72–0.43 (62%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Provorov18:24
xG 0.19–0.69 (22%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
- Braun – Hagg15:02
xG 0.16–0.82 (16%)attempts 6–26goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).