Sat, Jan 18, 2020·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Buffalo Sabres 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 017 | 07 | 131 |
| NSH | 012 | 114 | 111 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:58BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 6:05NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 13:31NSHCraig SmithPPGWGAssists: Kyle Turris, Mattias Ekholm · Deflected, 0.23 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:08NSHColin Blackwell: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:14BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P2 9:47NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:44NSHYannick Weber: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:24BUFJack Eichel: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:14BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Johansson – Sheary – Rodrigues2:40
xG 0.02–0.05 (31%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Vesey – Reinhart – Eichel11:33
xG 0.21–0.51 (29%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Frolik – Johansson – Lazar8:44
xG 0.27–0.61 (31%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons9:17
xG 0.33–0.73 (31%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Montour4:39
xG 0.35–0.13 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Dahlin5:34
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Pilut3:13
xG 0.01–0.06 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg11:22
xG 0.85–0.33 (72%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Bonino – Grimaldi – Arvidsson9:41
xG 0.67–0.32 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Johansen9:45
xG 0.17–0.10 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Blackwell6:55
xG 0.25–0.20 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi18:54
xG 1.22–0.35 (78%)attempts 25–16goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Fabbro15:43
xG 0.82–0.34 (71%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Irwin8:34
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).