Sat, Jan 18, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 0, Minnesota Wild 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 013 | 07 | 027 |
| MIN | 212 | 38 | 212 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:32MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 16:27MINCarson SoucyAssists: Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 3:38MINJason ZuckerPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 4:11MINRyan DonatoAssists: Ryan Hartman · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–4
- P2 19:07MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Jason Zucker, Mathew Dumba · Snap, 0.13 xG0–5
- P3 13:19MINZach ParisePPAssists: Ryan Suter, Eric Staal · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–6
- P3 16:50MINRyan HartmanPPAssists: Jordan Greenway, Ryan Donato · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–7
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:51DALStephen Johns: Interference2 min
- P1 4:51MINLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:59DALAlexander Radulov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:08DALCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:08MINMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:48MINJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:42DALJason Dickinson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 15:06MINLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:06DALCorey Perry: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:06DALCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:06DALCorey Perry: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:06MINLuke Kunin: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Comeau – Gurianov5:17
xG 0.46–0.08 (85%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Janmark – Hintz – Kiviranta6:12
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov2:23
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Kiviranta2:32
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Oleksiak2:11
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Oleksiak14:27
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Lindell2:34
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Rask – Fiala10:01
xG 0.22–0.08 (72%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Zuccarello10:10
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin11:02
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Hartman – Donato – Greenway8:05
xG 0.49–0.56 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon12:42
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Pateryn – Soucy15:06
xG 0.38–0.31 (56%)attempts 15–17goals 2–0
- Brodin – Dumba18:11
xG 0.47–0.59 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).