Sun, Jan 19, 2020·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 110 | 08 | 02 | 2 | 127 |
| CAR | 110 | 09 | 010 | 03 | 3 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Brett Pesce, Nino Niederreiter · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 19:04NYIAnders LeeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CAR Andrei Svechnikov scored
- 2. NYI Jordan Eberle stopped
- 3. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
- 4. NYI Mathew Barzal scored
- 5. CAR Teuvo Teravainen scored
- 6. NYI Anthony Beauvillier scored
- 7. CAR Martin Necas stopped
- 8. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
- 9. CAR Ryan Dzingel stopped
- 10. NYI Derick Brassard stopped
- 11. CAR Jaccob Slavin stopped
- 12. NYI Devon Toews stopped
- 13. CAR Nino Niederreiter stopped
- 14. NYI Casey Cizikas stopped
- 15. CAR Justin Williams scored
- 16. NYI Anders Lee stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:53CARMartin Necas: Holding2 min
- P2 13:20NYINoah Dobson: Interference2 min
- P2 16:45CARJordan Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:48CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P3 8:26NYICasey Cizikas: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Aho won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal13:32
xG 1.15–0.75 (61%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier3:24
xG 0.14–0.07 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Komarov – Martin – Cizikas10:56
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kuhnhackl – Dal Colle5:49
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews13:31
xG 0.69–0.42 (62%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy2:15
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Leddy – Pulock13:07
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Svechnikov10:46
xG 0.92–0.80 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Foegele – Aho9:49
xG 0.41–0.44 (48%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Williams – McGinn – Wallmark10:11
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Haula – Dzingel – Necas9:46
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Pesce18:09
xG 1.13–0.93 (55%)attempts 25–18goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury10:37
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Slavin15:00
xG 0.70–1.03 (41%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).