Sun, Jan 19, 2020·United Center, Chicago
Winnipeg Jets 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 120 | 110 | 238 |
| CHI | 28 | 014 | 311 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:51CHIAlex NylanderAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Connor Murphy · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 14:11CHIErik GustafssonAssists: Alex Nylander, Matthew Highmore · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 18:17WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Luca Sbisa · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 9:29CHIDavid KampfGWGAssists: Kirby Dach, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–3
- P3 14:14CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Ryan Carpenter, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 17:51WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Neal Pionk, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.40 xG2–4
- P3 18:26CHIDominik KubalikENAssists: Jonathan Toews, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:27CHIDominik Kubalik: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:27WPGDmitry Kulikov: Embellishment2 min
- P1 19:44CHIDrake Caggiula: Interference2 min
- P2 4:20CHIDrake Caggiula: Interference2 min
- P2 4:20CHIDrake Caggiula: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:13WPGAnthony Bitetto: Holding2 min
- P2 14:16CHIDrake Caggiula: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:33WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:23CHIOlli Maatta: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Wheeler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Copp – Ehlers10:29
xG 0.99–0.40 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Connor – Laine12:47
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Bourque – Shore – Appleton3:53
xG 0.06–0.25 (20%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Perreault – Roslovic – Appleton2:21
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Morrissey18:12
xG 0.73–0.40 (65%)attempts 23–13goals 0–1
- Sbisa – Pionk12:00
xG 0.51–0.40 (56%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Bitetto – Niku8:10
xG 0.45–1.28 (26%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDeBrincat – Kampf – Dach6:02
xG 1.02–0.34 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Dach2:22
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Saad – Carpenter8:53
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Toews – Kubalik – Caggiula10:55
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Koekkoek13:48
xG 1.34–0.29 (82%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Murphy – Gustafsson13:01
xG 0.72–0.40 (64%)attempts 17–17goals 3–0
- Gustafsson – Boqvist2:02
xG 0.16–0.04 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).