Mon, Jan 20, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Florida Panthers 5, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 19 | 39 | 525 |
| MIN | 113 | 17 | 213 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01FLAKeith YandleAssists: Mike Hoffman, Frank Vatrano · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 19:43MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Eric Staal, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 7:28FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Joshua Brown, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 10:59MINLuke KuninSHAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 2:02FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 4:19MINZach ParisePPAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.43 xG3–3
- P3 7:06MINLuke KuninAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 15:52FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Anton Stralman, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 19:54FLANoel AcciariGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Mark Pysyk · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:29FLAJoshua Brown: Holding2 min
- P1 19:24FLAAnton Stralman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 9:34MINVictor Rask: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:50MINKevin Fiala: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:11FLAMike Matheson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:37FLAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toninato won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Toninato – Vatrano8:20
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Acciari12:55
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:25
xG 0.56–0.83 (40%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Stillman14:34
xG 0.64–0.43 (60%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Ekblad3:14
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Yandle – Brown10:17
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin12:28
xG 0.78–0.43 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Hartman – Donato – Greenway8:47
xG 0.29–0.09 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Zuccarello13:24
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 14–5goals 0–2
- Zucker – Rask – Fiala12:11
xG 0.42–0.69 (38%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:48
xG 0.97–0.83 (54%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Brodin – Dumba17:40
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Soucy13:25
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).