Tue, Jan 21, 2020·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 4, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 28 | 15 | 15 | 418 |
| NYR | 014 | 015 | 213 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:35NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Derick Brassard · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 16:35NYIAnthony BeauvillierPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 9:52NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Jordan Eberle · Deflected, 0.01 xG3–0
- P3 3:13NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Bailey, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–0
- P3 13:45NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 15:32NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Ryan Strome · Snap, 0.24 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:03NYIJordan Eberle: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:19NYRRyan Strome: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:20NYRBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:48NYIRoss Johnston: Boarding2 min
- P3 12:39NYIScott Mayfield: Spearing double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 16:34NYIMatt Martin: Delaying game bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Martin – Cizikas9:32
xG 0.64–0.18 (77%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal10:11
xG 0.84–0.46 (65%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Brassard – Eberle – Lee2:38
xG 0.09–0.10 (49%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier11:25
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Toews2:15
xG 0.66–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy2:11
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pulock – Toews3:17
xG 0.13–0.10 (59%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Kakko6:42
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- McKegg – Lemieux – Chytil2:49
xG 0.13–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Lemieux4:06
xG 0.05–0.20 (20%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Howden – Chytil – Kakko4:15
xG 0.30–0.45 (39%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Fox5:04
xG 0.62–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren9:16
xG 0.83–0.23 (78%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Staal – DeAngelo9:15
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).