Tue, Jan 21, 2020·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 08 | 03 | 019 |
| PHI | 012 | 210 | 18 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:26PHIJakub VoracekGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Joel Farabee · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 18:40PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Travis Konecny, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P3 19:00PHIJustin BraunENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.45 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:46PHIJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:35PITJuuso Riikola: Holding2 min
- P2 9:22PITKris Letang: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:55PHIJoel Farabee: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:21PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:24PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Crosby – Rust5:35
xG 0.22–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Agozzino – Galchenyuk – Lafferty4:29
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese12:26
xG 0.37–0.22 (62%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Galchenyuk – McCann2:12
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Riikola3:57
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Riikola8:31
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Marino13:41
xG 0.14–0.26 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny12:15
xG 0.70–0.12 (86%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Farabee12:36
xG 0.81–0.30 (73%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Hayes – Laughton3:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Bunnaman – Rubtsov3:47
xG 0.03–0.11 (21%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov13:05
xG 0.81–0.29 (74%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Myers14:16
xG 0.70–0.34 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Braun – Hagg15:03
xG 0.37–0.73 (34%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).