Tue, Jan 21, 2020·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Winnipeg Jets 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 17 | 07 | 03 | 117 |
| CAR | 38 | 05 | 116 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28CARMartin NecasAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Haydn Fleury · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 5:30CARJustin WilliamsPPGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jaccob Slavin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 6:26WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 18:22CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 9:13CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 5:00WPGSami Niku: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:43CARWarren Foegele: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:11CARRyan Dzingel: Interference2 min
- P2 8:09WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:13WPGDmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:43CARJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:10WPGMason Appleton: Interference2 min
- P3 10:06CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:06WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:40WPGAndrew Copp: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:20CARBrett Pesce: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:20WPGMark Scheifele: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:20CARPetr Mrazek: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:20WPGMark Scheifele: Interference2 min
- P3 18:14CARJaccob Slavin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:56WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Ehlers – Roslovic9:18
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Perreault – Copp – Appleton7:21
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bourque – Shore – Harkins2:08
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine12:24
xG 0.47–1.03 (31%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk13:09
xG 0.61–0.41 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Kulikov11:18
xG 0.52–0.56 (48%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Bitetto – Niku5:41
xG 0.03–0.16 (18%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Foegele – Svechnikov2:41
xG 1.10–0.07 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Wallmark – Necas7:30
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Svechnikov7:18
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Williams – Martinook – McGinn6:03
xG 0.14–0.15 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – van Riemsdyk3:03
xG 1.10–0.03 (97%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Pesce2:20
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Slavin10:08
xG 0.77–0.60 (56%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).