Tue, Jan 21, 2020·United Center, Chicago
Florida Panthers 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 413 | 06 | 426 |
| CHI | 06 | 114 | 215 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:43FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Mike Matheson · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 6:14FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Dominic Toninato, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 10:04FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 13:33CHIKirby DachAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Slater Koekkoek · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 19:23FLAFrank VatranoPPGWGAssists: Mike Hoffman, Jonathan Huberdeau · Deflected, 0.30 xG4–1
- P3 4:00CHIDrake CaggiulaPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Duncan Keith · Tip-in, 0.17 xG4–2
- P3 18:45CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Kirby Dach, Erik Gustafsson · Slap, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:01CHIAdam Boqvist: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:54FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:23CHIAlex DeBrincat: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:04FLAKeith Yandle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:08FLANoel Acciari: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:59FLAMike Hoffman: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:28CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Toninato – Vatrano8:01
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov10:41
xG 0.51–0.63 (45%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Acciari11:08
xG 0.38–1.29 (23%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Matheson – Ekblad12:50
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Yandle – Brown8:20
xG 0.17–0.70 (20%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Stralman – Stillman13:19
xG 0.69–1.23 (36%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDeBrincat – Kampf – Dach5:24
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Kane – Saad – Carpenter8:41
xG 0.95–0.62 (61%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Toews – Kubalik – Caggiula7:41
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Kubalik2:21
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Boqvist13:36
xG 1.02–0.57 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Maatta – Koekkoek12:00
xG 0.68–0.28 (71%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Keith – Gustafsson2:51
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).