Wed, Jan 22, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Detroit Red Wings 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 211 | 05 | 011 | 227 |
| MIN | 112 | 315 | 06 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:08DETFilip ZadinaAssists: Dylan Larkin, Trevor Daley · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 4:28MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Mathew Dumba · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 16:39DETFilip ZadinaPPAssists: Trevor Daley, Valtteri Filppula · Deflected, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 1:12MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Eric Staal, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 2:19MINJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Victor Rask, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 11:39MINEric StaalAssists: Zach Parise, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 14:45MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:47MINMikko Koivu: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Abdelkader – Ehn – Smith8:46
xG 0.05–0.14 (28%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne11:11
xG 0.04–0.23 (15%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Perlini – Fabbri7:17
xG 0.15–0.78 (16%)attempts 6–17goals 0–2
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Zadina13:42
xG 0.31–1.07 (22%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBowey – Cholowski6:58
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Daley – Biega6:46
xG 0.13–0.13 (51%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Biega – Cholowski6:42
xG 0.03–0.30 (8%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Zuccarello14:17
xG 1.02–0.24 (81%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Koivu – Hartman – Greenway11:09
xG 0.62–0.05 (93%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Zucker – Rask – Fiala10:25
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin10:12
xG 0.17–0.14 (53%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba18:55
xG 1.42–0.22 (86%)attempts 26–11goals 3–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:29
xG 0.92–0.18 (83%)attempts 23–8goals 1–1
- Pateryn – Soucy15:35
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).