Mon, Jan 27, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 113 | 116 | 120 | 04 | 2 | 453 |
| OTT | 112 | 012 | 211 | 03 | 0 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:23NJDDamon SeversonPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nikita Gusev · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 18:42OTTTyler EnnisPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 4:28NJDKevin RooneyAssists: Andy Greene, Mirco Mueller · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 9:06OTTVladislav NamestnikovSHAssists: Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 9:41OTTChris TierneySHAssists: Connor Brown, Dylan DeMelo · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 16:39NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Anthony Duclair stopped
- 2. NJD Nikita Gusev scored
- 3. OTT Drake Batherson stopped
- 4. NJD Jack Hughes scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:14OTTConnor Brown: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 12:40NJDKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:13NJDMirco Mueller: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:57NJDP.K. Subban: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:57OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:00OTTMike Reilly: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:21OTTArtem Anisimov: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:28OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Tkachuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Bratt – Hischier12:07
xG 0.69–0.18 (79%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev12:45
xG 0.64–0.28 (70%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Zacha – Hughes7:46
xG 0.78–0.47 (63%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Hayden – Wood – Rooney7:02
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Mueller3:34
xG 0.44–0.08 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Butcher – Mueller6:47
xG 0.33–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Severson13:10
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Duclair – Tkachuk7:11
xG 0.89–0.36 (71%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- White – Batherson – Tkachuk2:37
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Boedker – Chlapik3:26
xG 0.04–0.06 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ennis – White – Batherson7:11
xG 0.30–0.55 (36%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Zaitsev11:10
xG 0.68–0.46 (59%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Reilly13:57
xG 0.49–0.75 (40%)attempts 24–17goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Chabot16:28
xG 0.49–0.78 (39%)attempts 19–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).