Skip to content
Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 28, 2020·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary

St. Louis Blues 5, Calgary Flames 4 (SO)

Away

St. Louis Blues

5

Final

Shootout

Home

Calgary Flames

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.

CGY winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
STL38011113022534
CGY2112907040431

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:45STLAlexander SteenAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P1 10:38CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P1 15:43CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P1 18:41STLDavid PerronAssists: Zachary Sanford, Alex Pietrangelo · Slap, 0.44 xG2–2
  5. P1 19:25STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–2
  6. P2 4:40CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
  7. P2 9:47CGYMark JankowskiAssists: Sam Bennett, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
  8. P3 0:51STLZachary SanfordAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, David Perron · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
  2. 2. STL David Perron scored
  3. 3. CGY Matthew Tkachuk stopped
  4. 4. STL Ryan O'Reilly scored
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 9:50STLZachary Sanford: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  2. P1 15:33STLRyan O'Reilly: Holding2 min · PPG
  3. P1 19:17CGYTravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 3:58STLJacob de la Rose: Holding2 min · PPG
  5. P2 17:47CGYOliver Kylington: Interference2 min
  6. OT 2:56STLDavid Perron: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
45% to win55% to win
← STL attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Thomas
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLCGY
34Shots on goal31
2.5Expected goals3.4
55Shot attempts59
28Faceoffs won33
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
18Hits19
11Blocked shots13
9Giveaways12
6Takeaways13

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestPerron – O'Reilly – Sanford8:42

    xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0

  2. de la Rose – Barbashev – Blais6:34

    xG 0.04–0.14 (22%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

  3. Steen – Bozak – Thomas6:52

    xG 0.15–0.31 (32%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1

  4. Schenn – Schwartz – Kyrou8:23

    xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestPietrangelo – Faulk5:39

    xG 0.60–0.24 (71%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1

  2. Gunnarsson – Faulk4:16

    xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0

  3. Bouwmeester – Parayko12:41

    xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0

Calgary Flames

Forward lines

  1. bestBacklund – Robinson – Bennett5:47

    xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0

  2. Lucic – Ryan – Dube3:19

    xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0

  3. Gaudreau – Robinson – Monahan2:27

    xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

  4. Backlund – Jankowski – Bennett2:06

    xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGiordano – Brodie11:39

    xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0

  2. Andersson – Kylington10:05

    xG 0.33–0.26 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1

  3. Hamonic – Hanifin11:27

    xG 0.33–0.62 (35%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 3.4 xGSTL 2.5 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 88/100 · #130 of 1082 this seasonSwing 2.20 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.

CGY winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).