Wed, Jan 29, 2020·Capital One Arena, Washington
Nashville Predators 5, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 37 | 07 | 210 | 524 |
| WSH | 215 | 215 | 04 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:28WSHRichard PanikAssists: Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:15NSHJarred TinordiAssists: Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 12:52NSHMikael GranlundPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P1 16:02NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Roman Josi, Nick Bonino · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P1 16:26WSHAlex OvechkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P2 6:01WSHRichard PanikUnassisted · Other, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 11:06WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Lars Eller, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–4
- P3 3:00NSHRyan JohansenSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 15:23NSHYannick WeberGWGAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:41NSHJarred Tinordi: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:02WSHDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:35NSHKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:19NSHMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:16NSHMattias Ekholm: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:37WSHGarnet Hathaway: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:35WSHRichard Panik: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:35NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:57NSHViktor Arvidsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:15WSHJakub Vrana: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:03WSHLars Eller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Johansen – Granlund10:45
xG 0.91–0.44 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 1–2
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi7:12
xG 0.27–0.20 (58%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Turris – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:36
xG 0.45–0.55 (45%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Watson – Blackwell7:09
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro14:07
xG 0.96–0.65 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Tinordi15:12
xG 0.34–0.40 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Hamhuis – Weber6:05
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson8:05
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway6:21
xG 0.36–0.03 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana8:33
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik6:56
xG 0.18–0.81 (18%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Siegenthaler6:22
xG 0.25–0.03 (88%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Orlov – Jensen10:05
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Orlov – Gudas2:57
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).