Wed, Jan 29, 2020·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 05 | 212 | 27 | 424 |
| LAK | 112 | 110 | 012 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:44LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 1:18LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Dustin Brown, Alec Martinez · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 5:48TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 11:58TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 4:13TBLErik CernakGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 19:59TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Brayden Point, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:21TBLKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:32LAKAdrian Kempe: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:45LAKKurtis MacDermid: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Lizotte
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Verhaeghe – Stephens9:24
xG 0.51–0.09 (84%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Cirelli12:35
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Killorn – Maroon – Paquette12:06
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point14:43
xG 0.18–0.62 (23%)attempts 9–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Sergachev12:41
xG 0.80–0.54 (60%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak15:03
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Hedman – Cernak2:08
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Prokhorkin8:29
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Kempe – Wagner – Lizotte7:11
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Lewis – Clifford – Amadio7:46
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo11:29
xG 0.50–0.58 (46%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Roy17:36
xG 0.63–0.45 (59%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Martinez – Ryan19:42
xG 0.41–0.88 (32%)attempts 16–19goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).