Thu, Jan 30, 2020·Prudential Center, Newark
Nashville Predators 6, New Jersey Devils 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 28 | 16 | 29 | 07 | 2 | 630 |
| NJD | 18 | 314 | 17 | 03 | 1 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:42NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Jarred Tinordi, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 4:54NJDPavel ZachaSHAssists: Nico Hischier, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 8:17NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Kyle Turris, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 8:44NJDPavel ZachaPPAssists: Nikita Gusev · Snap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 10:26NJDNikita GusevPPAssists: Pavel Zacha, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P2 12:48NSHNick BoninoAssists: Craig Smith, Rocco Grimaldi · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 17:24NJDJesper BrattAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Will Butcher · Snap, 0.28 xG3–4
- P3 0:33NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–4
- P3 6:37NJDJohn HaydenAssists: Kevin Rooney · Snap, 0.03 xG4–5
- P3 9:57NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Kyle Turris · Snap, 0.08 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. NSH Filip Forsberg scored
- 2. NJD Nikita Gusev scored
- 3. NSH Matt Duchene scored
- 4. NJD Jack Hughes stopped
- 5. NSH Ryan Johansen stopped
- 6. NJD Kyle Palmieri stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:53NSHColton Sissons: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:22NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:33NJDBlake Coleman: Holding2 min
- P2 6:58NSHRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:59NSHMatt Duchene: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:20NJDWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Johansen – Granlund14:38
xG 1.03–0.35 (75%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Bonino – Smith – Grimaldi9:03
xG 0.74–0.30 (71%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Turris – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:02
xG 0.34–0.47 (42%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
- Watson – Sissons – Trenin6:16
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 3–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber9:36
xG 0.88–0.47 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Tinordi14:48
xG 0.73–0.50 (59%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
- Weber – Josi3:01
xG 0.21–0.13 (61%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Bratt – Hischier12:32
xG 1.00–0.29 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Hayden – Wood – Rooney7:37
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Zacha – Hughes9:04
xG 0.38–0.80 (32%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev14:02
xG 0.46–0.91 (33%)attempts 16–12goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Butcher2:08
xG 0.77–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Vatanen – Severson15:25
xG 0.79–0.42 (65%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Butcher – Mueller12:27
xG 0.38–0.89 (30%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).