Fri, Jan 31, 2020·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 14 | 19 | 117 | 00 | 330 |
| PIT | 03 | 312 | 04 | 11 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:31PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Matt Niskanen, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 3:55PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 5:16PITBryan RustPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 11:03PITKris LetangPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 16:29PHITyler PitlickAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
- P3 2:20PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 0:55PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:52PITAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:05PHIPhilippe Myers: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:58PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:04PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:46PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny13:09
xG 0.75–0.30 (71%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Hayes – Laughton4:12
xG 0.33–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman3:13
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman2:38
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov18:33
xG 1.15–0.57 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Braun – Hagg13:01
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Myers13:00
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Agozzino – Galchenyuk – Angello3:36
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Blueger – Tanev – Aston-Reese12:07
xG 0.03–0.22 (11%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Crosby – McCann – Simon13:24
xG 0.59–0.91 (39%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Rust14:44
xG 0.44–0.78 (36%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Letang14:05
xG 0.43–0.57 (43%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson3:23
xG 0.01–0.30 (4%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Johnson – Schultz3:38
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).