Fri, Jan 31, 2020·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Washington Capitals 5, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 216 | 110 | 211 | 537 |
| OTT | 05 | 217 | 16 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:10WSHT.J. OshieAssists: John Carlson, Jakub Vrana · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 11:22WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Jakub Vrana, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 7:15OTTChris TierneySHAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Connor Brown · Tip-in, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 10:27WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 11:31OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Tyler Ennis, Ron Hainsey · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 3:07WSHCarl HagelinSHGWGAssists: Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 4:47OTTArtem AnisimovPPAssists: Anthony Duclair, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 19:45WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:26OTTThomas Chabot: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:18OTTDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P2 5:38OTTScott Sabourin: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:44WSHDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:51WSHBrendan Leipsic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:19WSHJonas Siegenthaler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:18OTTColin White: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Wilson10:31
xG 1.12–0.11 (91%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Dowd – Leipsic – Hathaway7:54
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik7:26
xG 0.11–0.26 (29%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana10:24
xG 0.45–1.21 (27%)attempts 5–16goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny14:07
xG 1.05–0.32 (77%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Orlov – Gudas2:26
xG 0.22–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Jensen – Kempny3:44
xG 0.23–0.24 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Sabourin – Chlapik3:28
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ennis – White – Batherson6:43
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Tierney – Duclair7:26
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Pageau – Brown – Tkachuk10:57
xG 0.30–0.96 (24%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zaitsev13:44
xG 1.15–0.32 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – DeMelo12:15
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 13–6goals 0–2
- Hainsey – Chabot14:46
xG 0.97–1.23 (44%)attempts 16–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).