Fri, Jan 31, 2020·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 216 | 08 | 213 | 437 |
| CAR | 06 | 19 | 210 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:52VGKPaul StastnyAssists: Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 9:59VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 9:55CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jordan Martinook, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P3 12:09VGKNate SchmidtAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 12:25CARBrock McGinnAssists: Haydn Fleury, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 16:21CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 17:32VGKAlex TuchPPGWGAssists: Paul Stastny, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:08CARJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:50CARWarren Foegele: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:01VGKDeryk Engelland: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:13VGKNicolas Roy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:26CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson11:10
xG 1.04–0.54 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Stastny – Smith – Marchessault11:55
xG 1.05–1.05 (50%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Eakin – Carrier – Tuch11:49
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Reaves – Nosek – Roy8:10
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Theodore19:17
xG 1.57–0.75 (68%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Engelland – Merrill13:24
xG 0.29–0.55 (34%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
- McNabb – Schmidt16:22
xG 0.80–1.10 (42%)attempts 12–16goals 3–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Haula – McGinn4:13
xG 0.29–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Williams – Martinook – Wallmark6:04
xG 0.28–0.06 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Foegele – Svechnikov12:05
xG 0.88–0.66 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Teravainen – McGinn – Aho3:18
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Fleury14:12
xG 0.83–0.08 (91%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Pesce17:01
xG 0.81–0.85 (49%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Slavin14:13
xG 0.80–1.14 (41%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).