Sat, Feb 1, 2020·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 0, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 04 | 017 | 029 |
| MTL | 116 | 211 | 18 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:25MTLNick SuzukiGWGAssists: Joel Armia, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 6:01MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Jeff Petry, Jordan Weal · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 13:35MTLTomas TatarAssists: Phillip Danault, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–3
- P3 10:46MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Nick Suzuki · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:46MTLJordan Weal: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:16FLAMike Hoffman: Holding2 min
- P3 1:15MTLJoel Armia: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:13MTLCarey Price: Delaying game2 min
- P3 9:36FLAMike Matheson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:14MTLNick Suzuki: Holding2 min
- P3 13:55MTLJoel Armia: Interference2 min
- P3 16:35MTLNick Cousins: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Hoffman – Toninato – Vatrano6:06
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Acciari3:48
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov7:40
xG 0.03–0.56 (5%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Acciari5:22
xG 0.00–0.69 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Ekblad2:15
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Stralman – Stillman9:52
xG 0.02–0.51 (3%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Yandle – Brown6:47
xG 0.12–0.70 (15%)attempts 2–15goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault7:28
xG 1.12–0.02 (99%)attempts 18–3goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Armia – Suzuki12:26
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Domi2:05
xG 0.32–0.03 (91%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – Weise – Cousins5:50
xG 0.07–0.01 (92%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak14:05
xG 1.42–0.02 (99%)attempts 22–2goals 3–0
- Weber – Chiarot15:57
xG 0.84–0.28 (75%)attempts 25–10goals 0–0
- Scandella – Mete11:08
xG 0.41–0.22 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).