Sat, Feb 1, 2020·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 111 | 06 | 02 | 125 |
| TOR | 010 | 19 | 015 | 12 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:08OTTMark BorowieckiAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Drake Batherson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 10:41TORJason SpezzaAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Zach Hyman · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- OT 3:54TORMitch MarnerPPGWGAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Slap, 0.15 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:03TORWilliam Nylander: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:31TORRasmus Sandin: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:20OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:40OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
- OT 1:04TORTyson Barrie: Interference2 min
- OT 3:40OTTMike Reilly: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Brown – Tkachuk12:18
xG 0.70–0.25 (73%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Sabourin – Chlapik2:03
xG 0.08–0.02 (83%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Ennis – White – Batherson9:51
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Tierney – Brown – Tkachuk2:08
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zaitsev13:33
xG 0.64–0.26 (71%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – DeMelo11:25
xG 0.52–0.54 (49%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev2:32
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Kerfoot – Nylander12:31
xG 1.02–0.49 (67%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Johnsson – Engvall8:09
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Timashov – Moore6:06
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews16:22
xG 0.59–1.08 (35%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Marincin10:42
xG 0.90–0.16 (85%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Barrie – Ceci5:33
xG 0.43–0.11 (80%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Ceci – Sandin7:36
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).