Sat, Feb 1, 2020·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New York Rangers 1, Detroit Red Wings 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 014 | 011 | 131 |
| DET | 011 | 011 | 011 | 033 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:13NYRMika ZibanejadPPGWGAssists: Chris Kreider, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:00DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 14:06NYRPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:40DETLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:13NYRGreg McKegg: Holding2 min
- P3 3:50DETGivani Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:50NYRJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Panarin12:30
xG 0.53–0.05 (92%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Kakko2:44
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Lemieux4:53
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich5:21
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Lindgren11:33
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Skjei – Fox10:13
xG 0.41–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Trouba – Fox2:06
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Perlini – Fabbri9:01
xG 0.77–0.28 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Ehn – Smith5:17
xG 0.47–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Helm – Glendening – Erne11:32
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Zadina14:48
xG 0.12–1.06 (10%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – Bowey12:30
xG 0.95–0.03 (97%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Bowey2:04
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Biega – Nemeth14:19
xG 0.36–0.49 (42%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).