Sat, Feb 1, 2020·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Colorado Avalanche 3, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 29 | 111 | 331 |
| PHI | 27 | 114 | 37 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:45PHIMatt NiskanenAssists: Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 19:54PHIKevin HayesPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Travis Konecny · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 2:01COLNikita ZadorovAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 3:05PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Sean Couturier, Robert Hagg · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 4:16COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Gabriel Landeskog · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 7:32PHIJoel FarabeeGWGAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 9:09COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Nikita Zadorov · Snap, 0.42 xG3–4
- P3 16:33PHIKevin HayesSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 19:15PHIScott LaughtonENAssists: Matt Niskanen, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.46 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:54COLNathan MacKinnon: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 3:53PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:18COLJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:18PHIPhilippe Myers: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:54COLAndre Burakovsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:50PHIPhilippe Myers: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00COLSamuel Girard: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:37COLTyson Jost: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 15:00PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Bellemare
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Nieto – Jost7:01
xG 0.34–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:00
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
- Calvert – Compher – Bellemare5:16
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin6:51
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard12:39
xG 0.71–0.12 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Girard – Makar3:23
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cole – Zadorov9:53
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Farabee11:06
xG 0.35–0.06 (85%)attempts 12–5goals 3–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny11:52
xG 0.89–0.60 (60%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Pitlick – Hayes – Laughton8:26
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Raffl – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman6:37
xG 0.08–0.30 (21%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers11:34
xG 0.84–0.57 (60%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Provorov15:16
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Provorov – Myers2:00
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).