Sat, Feb 1, 2020·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
St. Louis Blues 2, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 014 | 014 | 212 | 240 |
| WPG | 112 | 214 | 27 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:44WPGJack RoslovicAssists: Sami Niku · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 17:05WPGJack RoslovicAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 19:45WPGAndrew CoppGWGAssists: Jack Roslovic, Sami Niku · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P3 13:20STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 15:50STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Zachary Sanford, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 18:29WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–4
- P3 19:39WPGPatrik LaineENAssists: Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:36WPGAndrew Copp: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:36STLTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:36STLColton Parayko: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:23WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:18WPGSami Niku: Holding2 min
- P2 11:43STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Wheeler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPerron – O'Reilly – Sanford13:01
xG 0.72–0.15 (83%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Thomas5:20
xG 0.25–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Steen – Brouwer – Schenn6:01
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Bozak – Schwartz – Thomas5:58
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko16:33
xG 0.68–0.55 (55%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Bortuzzo – Dunn5:38
xG 0.26–0.14 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Dunn2:26
xG 0.10–0.01 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Bourque – Shaw – Shore6:29
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Appleton11:41
xG 0.10–0.14 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Copp – Harkins – Roslovic9:07
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Laine13:57
xG 0.47–0.82 (36%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Bitetto13:46
xG 0.57–0.48 (54%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk17:47
xG 0.57–0.79 (42%)attempts 20–16goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Niku13:47
xG 0.15–0.58 (20%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).