Sat, Feb 1, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Boston Bruins 6, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 112 | 312 | 210 | 634 |
| MIN | 011 | 08 | 17 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:28BOSTorey KrugAssists: Par Lindholm, David Krejci · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 4:39BOSTorey KrugPPGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 5:55BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak · Slap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 15:29BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: David Krejci, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–0
- P3 14:31MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Carson Soucy, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 18:02BOSAnders BjorkAssists: Joakim Nordstrom · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–1
- P3 18:33BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Karson Kuhlman, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.13 xG6–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 17:25BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:49MINRyan Hartman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:21MINEric Staal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:19BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:36BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
- P2 12:36MINMikko Koivu: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:32MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:40BOSJake DeBrusk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:54BOSZdeno Chara: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:17MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – DeBrusk – Kuhlman10:35
xG 0.70–0.19 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Wagner – Blidh – Lindholm9:25
xG 0.44–0.04 (91%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Coyle – Nordstrom – Bjork8:32
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:48
xG 0.07–0.37 (16%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Lauzon13:27
xG 0.37–0.08 (83%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Krug – Carlo11:35
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Krug – McAvoy2:33
xG 0.02–0.02 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Zuccarello12:13
xG 0.61–0.43 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin11:37
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Rask – Hartman – Greenway4:14
xG 0.03–0.18 (15%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Koivu – Zucker – Fiala5:25
xG 0.01–0.16 (8%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Soucy13:41
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 16–14goals 1–2
- Suter – Spurgeon15:08
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Brodin – Dumba17:58
xG 0.31–0.64 (32%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).