Sat, Feb 1, 2020·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 8, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 314 | 324 | 211 | 849 |
| CGY | 111 | 27 | 08 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:29EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 1:05EDMZack KassianAssists: Josh Archibald, Ethan Bear · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 12:42CGYBuddy RobinsonAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 15:33EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 3:18EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 4:35CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P2 10:14CGYElias LindholmUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P2 11:37EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–3
- P2 15:58EDMCaleb JonesAssists: Gaetan Haas, Alex Chiasson · Slap, 0.04 xG6–3
- P3 13:16EDMSam GagnerAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.04 xG7–3
- P3 18:03EDMGaetan HaasUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG8–3
Penalties (23)
- P1 9:20EDMKailer Yamamoto: Holding2 min
- P1 13:43CGYTravis Hamonic: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:55CGYBuddy Robinson: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:55EDMJujhar Khaira: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:08EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:36EDMSam Gagner: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:36CGYCam Talbot: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P2 19:36CGYCam Talbot: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:36CGYCam Talbot: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:36EDMMike Smith: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P2 19:36CGYCam Talbot: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:36EDMMike Smith: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:36CGYCam Talbot: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:36CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:36EDMEthan Bear: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:36EDMMike Smith: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 11:17CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:17EDMPatrick Russell: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:34CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:03CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 18:03CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:03EDMAlex Chiasson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:16CGYRasmus Andersson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto10:54
xG 0.95–0.26 (79%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Sheahan – Khaira – Russell8:56
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gagner – Chiasson – Haas8:56
xG 0.60–0.64 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Kassian – Archibald – McDavid10:06
xG 0.20–0.59 (25%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bear15:53
xG 0.99–0.40 (71%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Larsson – Klefbom14:43
xG 1.28–0.72 (64%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Benning – Jones12:08
xG 0.85–0.50 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Backlund – Rieder – Bennett3:58
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Tkachuk2:18
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Robinson – Monahan5:53
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Tkachuk8:37
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 4–10goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie12:11
xG 0.79–0.65 (55%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Hamonic – Hanifin10:31
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Andersson – Kylington6:14
xG 0.13–0.34 (28%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).