Sun, Feb 2, 2020·Centre Bell, Montreal
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 110 | 29 | 18 | 427 |
| MTL | 010 | 111 | 29 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:45CBJVladislav GavrikovAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:31CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Nick Foligno, Zach Werenski · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 9:18MTLTomas TatarAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 17:52CBJPierre-Luc DuboisUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 15:52MTLMax DomiAssists: Ben Chiarot, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 18:07CBJGustav NyquistENGWGAssists: Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–2
- P3 18:59MTLShea WeberAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Tomas Tatar · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:48MTLDale Weise: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:00MTLTomas Tatar: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:13MTLPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:13CBJSonny Milano: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06CBJDavid Savard: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:13CBJOliver Bjorkstrand: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGerbe – Nash – Robinson6:28
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Bjorkstrand – Dubois2:38
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Foligno – Bjorkstrand – Dubois7:12
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 3–0
- Jenner – Milano – Bemstrom9:26
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Jones – Werenski16:12
xG 0.73–0.69 (52%)attempts 16–15goals 2–0
- Harrington – Nutivaara12:06
xG 0.21–0.48 (30%)attempts 9–22goals 0–0
- Savard – Gavrikov17:19
xG 0.07–0.45 (14%)attempts 9–27goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault9:25
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 15–7goals 0–2
- Cousins – Lehkonen – Domi8:53
xG 0.46–0.22 (68%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Kovalchuk – Armia – Suzuki12:48
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Thompson – Weise – Poehling4:30
xG 0.09–0.13 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak13:22
xG 0.62–0.24 (72%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Weber – Chiarot15:32
xG 0.77–0.50 (61%)attempts 20–15goals 2–2
- Scandella – Mete15:01
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).