Mon, Feb 3, 2020·Madison Square Garden, New York
Dallas Stars 5, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 27 | 28 | 16 | 521 |
| NYR | 213 | 08 | 115 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:29NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 8:08DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: John Klingberg, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 8:24DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P1 15:41NYRBrett HowdenPPAssists: Brendan Lemieux, Kaapo Kakko · Snap, 0.61 xG2–2
- P2 7:52DALStephen JohnsAssists: Jason Dickinson, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 11:56DALBlake ComeauGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Radek Faksa · Snap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 5:22DALCorey PerryAssists: Andrej Sekera, Stephen Johns · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–2
- P3 13:17NYRBrendan LemieuxPPAssists: Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:27DALAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:56NYRBrendan Smith: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 8:08NYRPavel Buchnevich: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P1 13:44DALAlexander Radulov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 13:38NYRBrett Howden: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:38DALMiro Heiskanen: Embellishment2 min
- P2 18:14NYRAdam Fox: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:27NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:02DALRoope Hintz: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:00NYRBrendan Lemieux: Interference2 min
- P3 19:00DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Dickinson – Gurianov10:06
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa8:39
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Hintz7:52
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Radulov – Janmark8:53
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Heiskanen2:41
xG 0.24–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell12:34
xG 0.76–0.58 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Sekera – Johns11:06
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Howden – Chytil – Kakko7:56
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Fast – Strome – Panarin7:04
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Di Giuseppe – Buchnevich6:25
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- DeAngelo – Fox2:36
xG 0.04–0.01 (88%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Skjei – Trouba2:53
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Trouba – Lindgren9:10
xG 0.08–0.07 (52%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).