Tue, Feb 4, 2020·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 5, New Jersey Devils 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 210 | 211 | 06 | 1 | 536 |
| NJD | 18 | 210 | 15 | 01 | 0 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:17NJDMiles WoodAssists: Jesper Bratt, Mirco Mueller · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 1:51NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Damon Severson, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:44NJDJesper BrattAssists: Pavel Zacha, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 13:08MTLJoel ArmiaSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–3
- P2 17:06MTLNate ThompsonAssists: Ryan Poehling · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 7:22MTLNick CousinsAssists: Brett Kulak, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 9:35MTLChristian FolinAssists: Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault · Snap, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 19:40NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Blake Coleman, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NJD Nikita Gusev stopped
- 2. MTL Joel Armia stopped
- 3. NJD Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 4. MTL Ilya Kovalchuk scored
- 5. NJD Jack Hughes stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:39MTLNate Thompson: Holding2 min
- P2 1:46MTLShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:54MTLDale Weise: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:54NJDJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:50MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:23NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:29MTLNick Cousins: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:29NJDKevin Rooney: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:29MTLMax Domi: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:15NJDJoey Anderson: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:51MTLNick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Lehkonen – Domi7:03
xG 0.91–0.15 (86%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Cousins – Domi5:09
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Suzuki3:58
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Armia – Suzuki6:25
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Chiarot15:48
xG 0.82–0.37 (69%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Petry – Kulak15:56
xG 0.63–0.48 (57%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Scandella – Folin12:06
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Gusev11:25
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Hayden – Rooney – Anderson6:02
xG 0.23–0.06 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Bratt – Hughes7:05
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Wood – Zacha9:25
xG 0.02–0.69 (3%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson16:25
xG 0.48–0.14 (78%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Severson – Butcher2:03
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Carrick – White9:40
xG 0.31–0.69 (31%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).