Tue, Feb 4, 2020·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Dallas Stars 3, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 18 | 113 | 19 | 01 | 331 |
| NYI | 118 | 113 | 18 | 12 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:30NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Pulock · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 14:08DALDenis GurianovAssists: Corey Perry, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 12:12DALJason DickinsonAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Blake Comeau · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 13:38NYIDerick BrassardAssists: Michael Dal Colle, Kieffer Bellows · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 6:56DALJohn KlingbergSHAssists: Joe Pavelski, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 16:01NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Devon Toews, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.44 xG3–3
- OT 2:52NYIAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:10DALRoope Hintz: Interference2 min
- P1 7:47DALCorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:19NYICasey Cizikas: Interference2 min
- P2 2:51DALAlexander Radulov: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:36DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:08NYIJosh Bailey: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:44NYIMatt Martin: Holding2 min
- P3 14:11DALRoope Hintz: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Radulov – Janmark8:25
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Benn – Seguin – Hintz9:56
xG 0.53–0.52 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Comeau – Cogliano – Dickinson2:13
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa7:17
xG 0.06–0.23 (21%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell15:28
xG 1.21–0.67 (64%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Oleksiak – Heiskanen14:22
xG 0.34–0.67 (34%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Sekera – Polak10:02
xG 0.10–0.81 (11%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Martin – Cizikas8:38
xG 0.48–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier10:04
xG 0.36–0.20 (65%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Brassard – Dal Colle – Bellows7:45
xG 0.61–0.54 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal10:30
xG 0.49–1.27 (28%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews8:38
xG 0.47–0.13 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Dobson2:11
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Leddy – Pulock12:31
xG 0.86–0.74 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).