Tue, Feb 4, 2020·Capital One Arena, Washington
Los Angeles Kings 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 18 | 010 | 113 | 231 |
| WSH | 06 | 16 | 312 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:03LAKJeff CarterAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Matt Roy · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 7:25WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 11:33LAKJeff CarterAssists: Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 13:50WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 15:00WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–3
- P3 18:14WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: John Carlson · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 3:33WSHCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:36LAKKurtis MacDermid: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:39WSHMartin Fehérváry: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo9:10
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Grundstrom7:53
xG 0.27–0.03 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Amadio8:11
xG 0.27–0.22 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kempe – Wagner – Lizotte5:44
xG 0.03–0.38 (7%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Roy17:53
xG 0.58–0.41 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Martinez – Doughty18:04
xG 0.62–0.65 (49%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom5:24
xG 0.56–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–1goals 2–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Panik11:20
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana3:08
xG 0.04–0.08 (31%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana6:32
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny16:48
xG 0.72–0.33 (68%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Orlov – Fehérváry9:00
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Carlson – Orlov2:27
xG 0.02–0.15 (13%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).