Tue, Feb 4, 2020·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Carolina Hurricanes 3, St. Louis Blues 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 17 | 214 | 328 |
| STL | 19 | 47 | 110 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:44STLSammy BlaisAssists: Justin Faulk, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.34 xG0–1
- P2 1:27STLZachary SanfordAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Colton Parayko · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 4:50STLColton ParaykoAssists: Brayden Schenn, Robert Thomas · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 6:05CARSebastian AhoAssists: Warren Foegele, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 7:31STLBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–4
- P2 11:54STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
- P3 10:41STLZachary SanfordAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.05 xG1–6
- P3 12:31CARBrock McGinnAssists: Jordan Staal, Jaccob Slavin · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–6
- P3 16:35CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Jake Gardiner · Slap, 0.06 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:42STLBrayden Schenn: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 15:35STLVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:35CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:09CARSebastian Aho: Holding2 min
- P2 1:52STLVince Dunn: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:19CARJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:58CARJake Gardiner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:42STLSammy Blais: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:03STLAlexander Steen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:40CARMartin Necas: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Niederreiter – Teravainen9:08
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Williams – Dzingel – Martinook3:11
xG 0.37–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Haula – Dzingel2:20
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Staal – McGinn – Foegele2:32
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – van Riemsdyk13:37
xG 0.52–0.15 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Edmundson – Fleury12:28
xG 0.65–0.84 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Pesce15:08
xG 0.53–0.85 (38%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Barbashev – Blais7:32
xG 0.77–0.17 (82%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford10:41
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Steen – Bozak – Kyrou7:30
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Schenn – Schwartz – Thomas12:09
xG 0.07–1.00 (6%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Dunn9:23
xG 1.12–0.41 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Bouwmeester – Parayko13:55
xG 0.63–0.33 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 3–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo11:50
xG 0.16–0.59 (21%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).