Tue, Feb 4, 2020·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 04 | 010 | 215 | 00 | 229 |
| MIN | 012 | 210 | 07 | 15 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:53MINKevin FialaUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 15:08MINKevin FialaPPAssists: Jason Zucker, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 6:23CHIAdam BoqvistAssists: Duncan Keith, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 16:50CHIOlli MaattaAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Kirby Dach · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 2:21MINMathew DumbaGWGAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.31 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:50MINRyan Donato: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:27CHIPatrick Kane: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:57MINMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:03MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:15CHISlater Koekkoek: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Kubalik2:25
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Toews – Kubalik – Caggiula7:28
xG 0.36–0.22 (62%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Strome – DeBrincat – Kampf5:26
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Carpenter – Nylander7:44
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Gustafsson13:24
xG 0.31–0.06 (84%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Keith – Murphy5:23
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Keith – Boqvist13:56
xG 0.49–0.99 (33%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek12:19
xG 0.85–0.21 (80%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Parise – Zuccarello12:58
xG 0.82–0.76 (52%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Zucker – Fiala – Kunin9:56
xG 0.16–0.25 (40%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Koivu – Hartman – Donato8:30
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon19:01
xG 0.96–0.48 (67%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Brodin – Dumba19:05
xG 0.77–0.57 (57%)attempts 18–17goals 0–2
- Hunt – Soucy11:48
xG 0.64–0.52 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).