Tue, Feb 4, 2020·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 2, Winnipeg Jets 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 115 | 07 | 012 | 12 | 236 |
| WPG | 19 | 016 | 09 | 00 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46WPGMason AppletonAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Sami Niku · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 17:39NSHNick BoninoAssists: Rocco Grimaldi · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- OT 1:11NSHMikael GranlundGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Matt Duchene · Slap, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:23NSHViktor Arvidsson: Interference2 min
- P1 4:56WPGJansen Harkins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 6:26WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min
- P2 8:42NSHJarred Tinordi: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 13:39NSHViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:54NSHKyle Turris: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Wheeler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Johansen – Granlund10:22
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Forsberg2:10
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Sissons – Trenin6:17
xG 0.16–0.24 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Turris – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:35
xG 0.27–0.61 (31%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ekholm – Tinordi16:57
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Josi – Fabbro18:07
xG 0.59–0.89 (40%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Irwin10:54
xG 0.58–1.27 (31%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Laine15:14
xG 1.25–0.40 (76%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Ehlers – Appleton11:28
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Bourque – Shaw – Shore6:15
xG 0.32–0.08 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Copp – Harkins – Roslovic11:20
xG 0.34–0.71 (32%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Bitetto10:30
xG 1.24–0.49 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Niku13:29
xG 0.87–0.38 (69%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Morrissey – Pionk17:01
xG 0.50–0.61 (45%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).