Thu, Feb 6, 2020·Centre Bell, Montreal
Anaheim Ducks 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 014 | 111 | 112 | 00 | 237 |
| MTL | 17 | 110 | 09 | 11 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:18MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Jeff Petry, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 9:53ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Rickard Rakell, Jacob Larsson · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 13:16MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 2:16ANADerek GrantAssists: Carter Rowney · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- OT 0:25MTLJeff PetryGWGAssists: Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:57MTLVictor Mete: Delaying game2 min
- P1 11:54MTLBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:11ANANick Ritchie: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:46ANARyan Getzlaf: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:16ANASam Steel: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:04ANANick Ritchie: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:40ANAJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Kase – Steel – Jones9:58
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Terry10:46
xG 0.18–0.23 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Getzlaf – Silfverberg – Rakell9:30
xG 0.39–0.49 (44%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Rowney5:24
xG 0.30–0.59 (33%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson15:41
xG 0.80–0.09 (90%)attempts 22–6goals 2–0
- Gudbranson – Lindholm14:42
xG 0.38–0.85 (31%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Holzer – Larsson11:10
xG 0.16–0.76 (17%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Lehkonen – Suzuki9:26
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Domi – Evans9:37
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:10
xG 0.44–0.35 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Thompson – Weise – Cousins6:29
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak17:13
xG 1.04–0.21 (83%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Mete14:19
xG 0.44–0.66 (40%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Scandella – Folin9:45
xG 0.10–0.32 (24%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).