Thu, Feb 6, 2020·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Vegas Golden Knights 7, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 17 | 217 | 415 | 739 |
| FLA | 113 | 19 | 03 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:15VGKMark StoneAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 16:22FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 1:41VGKMark StoneAssists: Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 11:52FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 12:18VGKMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 0:17VGKNate SchmidtAssists: Paul Stastny, Reilly Smith · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 4:11VGKShea TheodoreSHAssists: Paul Stastny, Jon Merrill · Slap, 0.05 xG5–2
- P3 8:53VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty · Slap, 0.15 xG6–2
- P3 15:06VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Mark Stone, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.10 xG7–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:59FLADominic Toninato: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:07VGKMark Stone: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:22VGKWilliam Carrier: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 4:25VGKBrayden McNabb: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:25FLAEvgenii Dadonov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:40VGKWilliam Carrier: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 13:57FLAKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:07FLABrett Connolly: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:07FLAJoshua Brown: Holding2 min
- P3 3:42VGKReilly Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:51FLADominic Toninato: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toninato won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson6:53
xG 1.42–0.26 (84%)attempts 11–6goals 4–0
- Stastny – Smith – Marchessault8:46
xG 0.62–0.05 (92%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Eakin – Carrier – Tuch9:49
xG 0.46–0.10 (82%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Reaves – Nosek – Roy7:48
xG 0.07–0.03 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Theodore13:35
xG 1.86–0.18 (91%)attempts 23–6goals 2–0
- McNabb – Schmidt16:34
xG 0.71–0.29 (71%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Merrill – Whitecloud11:29
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Acciari10:16
xG 0.29–0.77 (28%)attempts 7–13goals 1–2
- Hoffman – Toninato – Vatrano6:32
xG 0.07–0.77 (8%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Connolly – Malgin3:10
xG 0.08–0.80 (9%)attempts 2–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Brown4:31
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad7:30
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Brown5:08
xG 0.00–0.54 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).