Thu, Feb 6, 2020·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Los Angeles Kings 3, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 26 | 110 | 09 | 325 |
| NYI | 07 | 210 | 316 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:20LAKBen HuttonAssists: Adrian Kempe, Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 17:20LAKAlex IafalloUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 1:40NYIMichael Dal ColleAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Nick Leddy · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 7:09LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Michael Amadio, Ben Hutton · Tip-in, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 10:22NYIKieffer BellowsAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Derick Brassard · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 0:23NYIMatt MartinAssists: Devon Toews, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–3
- P3 12:10NYIKieffer BellowsGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 19:47NYIAnders LeeENAssists: Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P2 12:54NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:02NYIAnthony Beauvillier: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:55LAKSean Walker: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:03LAKAlec Martinez: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:03NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:03LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:03NYICasey Cizikas: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKempe – Wagner – Lizotte6:24
xG 0.20–0.06 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo13:41
xG 0.55–0.58 (49%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Lewis – Prokhorkin – Amadio5:50
xG 0.39–0.76 (34%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Grundstrom8:22
xG 0.10–0.63 (14%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Doughty – Walker2:00
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hutton – Roy17:34
xG 0.94–0.96 (50%)attempts 21–16goals 2–0
- Martinez – Doughty18:05
xG 0.75–1.17 (39%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Dal Colle – Bellows9:20
xG 0.79–0.38 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Komarov – Martin – Cizikas8:59
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Beauvillier10:32
xG 0.92–0.82 (53%)attempts 12–17goals 0–2
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal15:07
xG 0.37–0.73 (34%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy11:28
xG 0.96–0.24 (80%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Dobson8:05
xG 0.84–0.52 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Leddy – Pulock4:26
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).