Thu, Feb 6, 2020·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 5, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 15 | 34 | 519 |
| PHI | 09 | 017 | 020 | 046 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:13NJDBlake ColemanGWGAssists: Travis Zajac, P.K. Subban · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 1:38NJDDamon SeversonPPAssists: Mackenzie Blackwood · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 1:10NJDPavel ZachaSHAssists: Kevin Rooney · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 4:23NJDMiles WoodUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–0
- P3 11:16NJDMiles WoodAssists: Mirco Mueller · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:58PHITyler Pitlick: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:27NJDJohn Hayden: Holding2 min
- P2 1:19PHIKevin Hayes: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:50NJDP.K. Subban: Holding2 min
- P2 14:04PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:46NJDP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:29NJDJohn Hayden: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Simmonds – Wood – Zacha8:58
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 3–13goals 2–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Gusev10:39
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Bratt – Hughes8:09
xG 0.06–0.40 (12%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Hayden – Rooney – Anderson7:40
xG 0.05–0.59 (8%)attempts 2–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Butcher – Mueller3:21
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson2:17
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Greene – Subban12:54
xG 0.15–0.51 (23%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Bunnaman4:12
xG 0.69–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Hayes – Laughton9:17
xG 0.45–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Andreoff – Raffl – Aube-Kubel3:44
xG 0.31–0.11 (75%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
- Andreoff – Aube-Kubel – Bunnaman4:42
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Provorov14:14
xG 0.75–0.10 (88%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Braun – Gostisbehere11:25
xG 0.53–0.13 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Myers14:37
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 15–6goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).